The invisible Arsenal. How much Italy can produce, and who knows it
An open program on a single question: how much Italy’s defense supply chain can produce in ninety days, with which components and from where. Seven sourced articles, three tools that run in the browser, two forms to fill in and an open case with data. Everything downloadable without leaving an email address.
Three lines, to be verified
The bottleneck of European rearmament is the factory, and the Italian factory is made of SMEs whose numbers nobody adds up: the capacity that is missing is largely capacity nobody sees.
The cycle shortens first with data and only then with machines. The capacity map is built one node per plant, with data that stays owned by the company and a buyer who sees how much, when and from where.
That map is the most sensitive information in the system. It must stay in the country: inspectable code, company-owned nodes, a federated layer. The four sovereignty tests apply to any vendor, Yempik included.
Six numbers, each with its source
These are the numbers the series rests on. Every value links to its primary source; totals that remain government claims do not appear.
| 4 versus 2 | million artillery shells a year, Russia versus the European Union, according to Commissioner Kubilius |
| the European capacity declared by the Commission in 2024 compared with industry’s estimate | |
| maximum share of non-EU components in EDIP-funded projects | |
| suppliers measured by Leonardo on AirSupply, 87% of them SMEs | |
| the redesign cycle of a drone in Ukraine, with makers up from 7 to 500 | |
| devoted to data consolidation by the Ministry’s 2026 AI and Defense Strategy |
Seven pieces, in reading order
Every piece closes with something to do on Monday. Read them in order or start from the one you need.
| 01 | European rearmament is won in the factoryFour million versus two, the money that is there and the capacity nobody sees. Three moves for an SME in six months. | Viewpoint · 12 min |
| 02 | What AI can do without a byte leavingFour information classes, the management charter, the one place. With the grid and the NIS2 questionnaire to download. | Guide · 11 min |
| 03 | The invisible supply chainThe prime sees you, you do not see your suppliers. The EDIP paradox and the federated layer, one node per plant. | Viewpoint · 10 min |
| 04 | The seven-day cycleWhat Ukraine teaches manufacturers: the edge lies in the cycle. Seventeen ways of writing six problems, and the checklist. | Viewpoint · 7 min |
| 05 | How much can you produce in 90 days?The question your customer will ask in 2027. The calculator, the six data points to answer within an hour, the survey. | Guide · 7 min |
| 06 | The map cannot live in DenverIndustrial data sovereignty with the numbers: the facts from filings, the word “enterprise”, the four tests. | Viewpoint · 8 min |
| 07 | Arsenale: the manifesto and the first nodeThe manifesto, the node demo on Vertesa and the open specification 0.1: capacity seen in real time, verifiable and federated. | Viewpoint · 8 min |
To use on Monday, without leaving an email address
Three tools run in the browser and send no data. The two documents are PDFs to print and fill in. Answers to the survey and the scale are anonymous.
- Calculator90-day calculatorSeven numbers: how many parts in 90 days and which constraint binds, the machines or the supplier.
- Survey90-day surveyTen anonymous questions on supply-chain visibility. The first dataset the Ministry can read.
- Self-assessmentArsenal scaleTwelve questions, four levels: where your factory stands in its relationship with data.
- PDFClassification gridThe four information classes, the allowed tools for each and the eight lines of the management charter.
- PDFTwo-sided NIS2 questionnaireSide A: the four questions for the AI software supplier. Side B: the form the supplier answers with.
Vertesa: five tables, eleven hidden problems
Vertesa is the fictional company of the whole series: precision mechanics, 120 people, three products, twenty-four suppliers. We publish its synthetic data, suppliers, bill of materials, non-conformities, orders and production, with eleven problems we have seen in real companies. The exercises are split by function; the teacher’s guide is available on request.
What to do, depending on where you sit
If you run an SME
- Classify information into four classes and write the management charter, in one afternoon with management.
- Build the single-source supplier map in a sheet, then move it into the one place where know-how and rules live.
- Measure the cycle between report and decision, and keep the six data points ready to answer “how much in 90 days” within an hour.
If you lead a district or a cluster
- Distribute the survey to your companies: whoever distributes it receives their group’s results.
- Ask for the federated layer: one node per plant, data that stays with the companies, a buyer who sees the status.
- Use the Vertesa case to train purchasing, quality and production on the same data.
If you work for the Ministry
- The federated production capacity map, one node per plant, before any central platform.
- Open architectures and the four sovereignty tests written into tenders, for any vendor.
- Read the survey data before deciding where the incentives go.
What we count, what we do not
- Every number in the series links to its primary source in the text. Totals that remain government claims, such as Ukrainian drone production, are flagged as such and not used.
- Vertesa is a fictional company and its data is synthetic, generated with a fixed seed. No data, document or name of a real client appears in the program; the supply-chain companies we met are not named.
- Companies named are named for public facts, filed accounts and public records, with no judgment on the product. The piece on industrial data sovereignty applies the four tests to Yempik too.
- The survey is anonymous: no name, no company, no production data. Results are published in aggregate form from forty answers onwards.
- The Arsenal Index, a reading of the filed accounts of 34 supply-chain companies, and the Report are in preparation and will be published only with verified data. The program is not legal advice and does not discuss weapon systems.
What is here, what is coming
- Six articles in the series, with sources.
- 90-day calculator, 90-day survey, Arsenal scale.
- Classification grid and two-sided NIS2 questionnaire as PDFs.
- Vertesa open case with five tables and the exercises.
- Arsenale manifesto online.
- Node demo on Vertesa, open with no sign-up.
- Open node specification, version 0.1.
- Seventh piece in the series: Arsenale, the manifesto and the first node.
- Arsenal Index: 34 supply-chain companies read from their filed accounts.
- Report v1 with the first forty survey answers.
- External review of the method by an independent reader.
Contribute to the first dataset: three minutes, no name.
Ten anonymous questions on the visibility of your supply chain. With a hundred answers it becomes the chapter the Ministry can read. If you would rather talk, write to us: we sell nothing on the first call.